The Brexit: Independence Day for England or a Big Mistake?

Today we bring you a special edition of Inside the Economy with SH&J. As many are now aware, last Friday, 52% of voters elected for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union after a 43 year partnership. While it is not a legally binding referendum, the UK will begin a 2 year clock negotiating the terms of their exit. As a result of the vote, the global markets fell approximately 12% and the U.S. markets fell around 5%.

The jury will be deliberating this unprecedented event for several months or longer but one thing is for sure, markets hate uncertainty and increased volatility is expected over the short term. Although we have been assessing the investment ramifications of a Brexit for some time (knowing that the polls showed the vote would be very close), we don’t necessarily feel it will have any significant impact on the U.S. economy. The correction of the U.S. markets in particular over the past two days, in our opinion, is primarily based on fear of change and has little to do with U.S. economic reality. The same cannot be said for England. Continue reading

Inside the Economy with SH&J: June 20, 2016

As the summer heat rises, the economic news slows down. This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J focuses on Thursday’s Brexit vote as well as newly released U.S. consumer debt figures. Listen in to find out which U.S. state has risen to the #6 seat in the world’s largest economies and why we likely won’t be seeing interest rate increases this summer.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: June 6, 2016

This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J provides updates on the jobs report released last week and the effect it had on the bond market as well as the likelihood for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in June. An increase in average hourly earnings has created a concern about increased automation leading to elimination of some minimum wage jobs or jobs going to more highly educated individuals. Listen in to hear more on the continued inflow of new money into the U.S. from overseas in search of safety and liquidity.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: May 23, 2016

As we transition into summertime, the news is slowing and the economic committee reviews macroeconomic trends including a look at the Federal debt level and increased subprime lending (mostly in auto loans) as well as China’s continued investment in U.S. real estate. Additionally, hear what information about Saudi Arabia has been kept a secret for more than four decades and how much of the focus around the world is on treasuries and confidence. Post your questions below and we will answer them during our next Inside the Economy with SH&J in two weeks!

Inside the Economy with SH&J: May 9, 2016

While our last discussion highlighted segments of the U.S. economy, this week’s discussion highlights segments of China’s economy. Gain insight on China’s debt bubble and the potential effect (or lack thereof) on the U.S. consumer, as well as a comparison of Corporate China today to Corporate America in 2005. This discussion also addresses the latest on U.S. consumer debt, auto sales and the labor markets. Listen in to hear about these issues and more, including updates on the U.S. energy bankruptcies.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: April 25, 2016

This week’s discussion highlights segments of the U.S. economy. The U.S. job market remains strong as layoffs within the energy sector remain low and individuals who leave their current positions are moving on to better jobs. In the housing market, U.S. home prices are up 10% on average and even higher in the Mountain and Pacific areas. The municipal bond market, with the exception of Illinois and New Jersey, has done well as state and local finances continue to improve. Listen in to hear more on these issues as well as GDP for the first quarter and anticipated bad press for Freddie Mac.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: April 11, 2016

This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J highlights an update on the global economy. Germany appears to be a bright spot within the European Union with a budget surplus in 2015 despite global trade trending down, particularly in China. After recording a trade deficit with China for 2015, Germany is now seeking to make the United States their primary trading partner. Japan is also seeing a downturn in output and could be in recession by this summer. Listen in to hear more on the ECB’s continued quantitative easing, the flood of refugees into Germany, and comments on Emerging Market debt.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: March 28, 2016

This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J continues the discussion on oil and the challenges hindering the much anticipated boost in production from Iran. Meanwhile, Europe’s banking system is under pressure to keep its zero-interest and negative-interest rate policies in place for the foreseeable future. Listen in for commentary on the aftermath of the Brussels and Paris attacks and how it is affecting tourism and putting further pressure on the European banking system. We discuss how the first quarter is wrapping up and the outlook for the remainder of 2016.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: March 14, 2016

This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J includes explanation of how the price of oil has largely contributed to the recent S&P 500 recovery, yet earnings will likely be the primary factor influencing S&P 500 growth in the near future. The U.S. is seeing the start of a manufacturing rebound as well as the beginning signs of full employment. Inventory buildup is decreasing as consumption picks up and the labor participation rate is on the rise. Core inflation has slowly increased and appears to be sustainable, giving the Fed rationale for a rate increase this year. Listen in to hear more on these issues as well as commentary on nuclear energy worldwide and the Federal Budget.

Inside the Economy with SH&J: February 15, 2016

As lack luster S&P 500 performance continues to plague media headlines, this week’s economic discussion provides reasoning around lower earnings and a high percentage of sales coming from struggling overseas economies with weak currencies. Low energy and material prices are also contributing to lower performance figures. Hear commentary about how a prolonged duration of low oil prices could cause a global sell-off of European stocks and what effect it may have on business and consumer sentiment, particularly in the U.K. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the labor market continues to improve with 5.61 million available positions, retail sales are up, banks are back in the lending business, and consumer spending and consumer sentiment are on the rise. Listen in to hear more!